Random Thoughts...

As the plot of the Democratic primary twists and turns, Barack Obama’s upper-hand is becoming more and more prominent. As he's swept the table the past few weeks, Democrats have turned out in record numbers on his behalf, often dwarfing the turnout of Republicans in the reddest of states. In those states (such as Nebraska and Kansas), Obama is winning and he's winning big - with 7 out of 10 votes cast. If nothing else speaks to the transformational aspects of his candidacy, that does.

Looking to the general election, it’s apparent that Obama brings a 50-state campaign to the table, while Clinton has reportedly planned out her entire 271 electoral vote strategy. Change versus politics as usual. Well, Americans are tired of presidents who only govern on behalf of their supporters. If the Clinton campaign is any indication (victory above all else and damn the consequences), she will govern much the same way. Despite her "vast experience", she fails to comprehend the nation's desperate yearning for change.

To become the president we need – one who leads and truly inspires - a candidate must first have the ability to connect with voters outside of his/her political base. Unity brings strength, pride, and change...remember? Division breeds contempt, apathy, and paralysis. More and more Americans, tired of the latter, are looking to Obama to provide the former. The polls numbers reflect as much.

On the heels of an Obama sweep of the Potomac primaries, the Clinton campaign is in danger of adopting the Giuliani strategic focus on distant goalposts. But as Rudy knows too well, as those goalposts move closer, the subsequent momentum of the Obama campaign could make Clinton's task insurmountable. Thus the firewalls are set in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. At that point, it could very well be all or nothing for the Clinton campaign – a campaign that has recently relied on a $5 million loan from its candidate, and a campaign that must compensate for the resignations of its campaign manager and deputy campaign manger. The writing is on the wall but if we’ve learned anything from this campaign, it is that voters tend to reject the “inevitable” candidate and that Hillary Clinton is at her best when the tide is against her. The tide has officially turned and soon it'll be time to put those lessons to the ultimate test.

Voices

Mike Huckabee, on why more and more Democrats are looking past Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama: “The American people are not looking for someone who can fix a carburetor. They’re looking for someone who can drive the car.”

10,000 Years

Like hope, but different.

The Professional

In the Times this weekend, Fred Kaplan provides a must-read profile of Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

“Here’s another lesson I’ve learned. Two of the presidents I’ve worked for got into trouble because of foreign policy: Carter and Reagan. And in both cases” - Carter with the hostage crisis in Tehran, Reagan with illegal arms shipments to raise money for the Nicaraguan contras - “they got into trouble over Iran.” He half-smiled and cocked his eyebrows.

It was a classic display of the traits that distinguish Gates from his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld: caution as opposed to brashness, attention more to particulars than to grand theory and a view of history as a set of warning bells, not an outmoded mind-set to be transcended. Gates is clearly aware of the comparison. “My favorite cartoon from my confirmation hearings,” he said with a laugh, “shows me holding up my hand and saying, I swear that I am not now, and have never been, Donald Rumsfeld.”

Staged Presence

With the policy differences between Obama and Clinton negligible at best (i.e., affordable almost-universal health care versus Hillarycare Part II), it's no surprise that voters and the press are focusing on the stylistic and strategic variances that separate the two candidates. Obama's inspiring, young, grassroots; Clinton's pragmatic, prepared, establishment. This dichotomy is interesting and, at times, telling, but it's not the whole story. The campaigns each strive to show their candidates in a certain light, 'tis true...but the mechanics through which they achieve the spin are worth a look. Voters respond to perceptions, not to reality, and the level to which the Clinton campaign must engineer perceptions is astonishing. Frank Rich's column in the New York Times this weekend tells it like it is. The Obama folks twist results, too, but at least they're spinning based off genuine responses to their candidate.

On the subject of genuine versus staged situations, can someone please tell me why Ann Coulter, who is clearly the fakest of all fakes (hair, nails, outrage), has any following? Does anyone actually believe she has a shred of credibility? Also, why are there no progressive versions of the Ann Coulter type?

The Iranian Old Guard

In today’s Washington Post, Thomas Erdbrink reports on the diminishing influence of the Iranian old guard. It’s sure to set off a generational struggle to fill the political vacuum in the long-term, while emboldening the Ahmadinejad faction in the near-term.

After Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's followers toppled a U.S.-backed autocracy in Iran, he brought to power a coterie of politically engaged clerics who sought to create the world's first Islamic republic. Nearly 30 years later, a new generation of politicians is sweeping aside those clerics, many of whom had become proponents of better relations with the West and gradual steps toward greater democracy.

The newcomers are former military commanders, filmmakers and mayors, many younger than 50 and only a few of them clerics. They are vowing to carry out the promises of the revolution and to place Iran among the world's leading nations. This rising generation has the support of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader in Iran's political system, who backs the government's assertive foreign and nuclear policies.

Last month, local election councils disqualified scores of clerics and their allies -including Khomeini's grandson, Ali Eshragi - from seeking election to parliament March 14. Such candidates have been disqualified before, but analysts said the absence of members of the clerical old guard from other institutions of power in Iran means they will find it difficult to mount an electoral comeback.

"These newcomers are pushing the followers of the imam out of power," said cleric and political veteran Rasoul Montajabnia, using an honorific to refer to Khomeini. "We are being dealt with disloyally." Analysts say the purging of those clerics strengthens President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the most prominent leader of the new generation, and will result in a smaller political class that is more beholden to the supreme leader and less tolerant of even internal dissent.

The Trouble in Diyala

The LA Times provides an interesting account of the migration of AQI into the Diyala River Valley.

For the last year, U.S.-led forces have pursued the militants from one stronghold to the next in Diyala, a province of winding waterways and abundant farms stretching north and east from Baghdad to the Iranian border. They have captured or killed hundreds of people, most said to be members or affiliates of the militant group Al Qaeda in Iraq. The American-led troops have destroyed weapons caches, training bases, bomb-making factories and torture houses.

Yet the Sunni Arab militants identified by many U.S. commanders as their most lethal enemy and the greatest obstacle to stability in Iraq continue to flow into the province and farther north to the regions of Mosul and Kirkuk. This is not the only place that the militants have established a haven, but the U.S. deems success here as crucial to its efforts to consolidate recent security gains as American troops begin to draw down.

The Irony of a McCain Candidacy

As we’ve seen, the inevitable candidacy of John McCain has left the various elements of the Republican Party struggling to mend fences while trying to drown out the voices urging conservatives to sit this one out.

In the Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger, debates the proper course for Republicans: “McCain or Wilderness”?

Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham aren't the only conservatives in agony over John McCain. The base is bummed. There are murmurs of heading into the political wilderness. Sit this one out. Rather than sell the party's soul to John McCain, let Hillary have it, or Barack. Go into opposition for four years while the party gets its head together and comes up with an authentic conservative candidate. If this sourness takes hold at the margin, say among GOP anti-immigrant voters, it might happen.

The wilderness is a good place to find yourself, if you're a prophet. There are reasons, though, why a principled political retreat won't make conservative prospects better. The point of a principled retreat would be to rediscover coherence amid doctrinal confusion. The exact opposite is likely to happen.

Most of the distrust of the McCain candidacy is rooted in personal ill will. He's a hard case, and activists are often brittle. The fear is that one of the strongest impulses in a McCain presidency will be payback, and that he might sell out conservatives on taxes and the judiciary. That is possible, though by now it would require an act of deep duplicity by Mr. McCain. Here again, the conservatives should show more self-confidence.

This isn't an apologia for the senator. Unlike Reagan, he is too self-preoccupied. There is a danger his presidency would be mainly about legacy, and therefore disorganized. This is a call to play the cards on the table. Conservatives are not in the wilderness. They should get back in the game.

Former Bush speechwriter, Michael Gerson, speaks to why some conservatives have found relief, not contempt, in a McCain candidacy.

The attacks of movement conservatives - particularly the talk radio and blogging crowd - on John McCain have reached a shrill, off-key crescendo. McCain is not only "dangerous" and "stupid," he has "contempt for his fellow humans." His opponents will refuse to vote in the general election, or even will campaign for Hillary Clinton. With McCain now almost the last man standing, it will be interesting to see how, or if, these pledges are fulfilled.

For some conservatives, the frustrations run deeper than resentment for a single, outsized, prickly, infuriating man. Early in this cycle, many elements of the Republican coalition rooted for - and fully expected - a decisive, ideological break from the compromised Bush years on issues such as immigration and foreign policy. Those hopes have been disappointed.

The lessons of the McCain resurrection run deeper than the limits of talk radio: Candidates of unity are more appealing and electable. American ideals are indispensable in the conduct of American foreign policy. Some conservatives have reacted with anger. For others of us, there is only relief.

Gerson is not alone. As Politico points out, “Conservatives have already found something to like about John McCain: They think he can win in November.” Former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating elaborates: “The public who wants change is comfortable with John McCain, whom they view as someone who is not a wholly owned subsidiary of the Bush administration." Keating believes the very issues that have estranged McCain from much of the conservative base “have actually strengthened him with moderates.”

That may be. But as McCain treads his political tight rope toward the general election, his balancing act of appeasing conservatives without alienating moderates will continue. With Mike Huckabee and the base tugging from the right and President Bush beginning to embrace his candidacy, McCain could topple. The ultimate irony could become reality - the more popular McCain becomes with conservatives, the more likely he loses that trait that they find most appealing - his electability.

The Clock is Ticking

Despite the incessant flag-waving of John McCain and claims of victory in Iraq, the American public is growing impatient - understandably so - with the Iraqi government. After all, as the President has stated time and time again, the underlying intention of his so-called “surge” was to provide the Iraqi government with the “breathing space it needs” to take major steps toward reconciliation. That has no happened. With two viable Democratic candidates inching closer and closer to the White House, the Iraqi government knows the clock is ticking on the open-ended commitment of American lives and treasure by the Bush Administration. They are also becoming increasingly aware that Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki is not up to the job. The LA Times lays out the political dynamics in Baghdad.

Key partners in Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's government may seek the ouster of the Shiite Muslim leader if he fails to move quickly on stalled benchmark reforms and on sharing in decision making. Threats of a possible parliamentary vote of no confidence have come in recent weeks from the Kurdish Alliance and the Shiite party Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, Maliki's last major defenders, which, along with the largest Sunni political party, have suggested Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi, a Shiite, as a possible alternative.

Voices of the Past

"The liberties of our country, the freedom of our civil constitution are worth defending at all hazards; and it is our duty to defend them against all attacks. We have received them as a fair inheritance from our worthy ancestors: they purchased them for us with toil and danger and expense of treasure and blood, and transmitted them to us with care and diligence. It will bring an everlasting mark of infamy on the present generation, enlightened as it is, if we should suffer them to be wrested from us by violence without a struggle, or be cheated out of them by the artifices of false and designing men."

- Samuel Adams

After al-Sistani

The diminishing public presence of Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the “godfather and guarantor to the Shiite-led leadership”, has lead to serious questions about his health and the implications of finding a successor. “Al-Sistani, who moved to Iraq more than 50 years ago after studying in Iran, is one of four grand ayatollahs in Najaf, but clearly retains the most prestige and standing among his peers. Yet it's precisely this rare blend of political and religious gravitas that makes him a potential liability. He is a virtually impossible act to follow, leaving open the possibility of a confusing and potentially messy fallout after his death.”

Any change in al-Sistani's role or reach could have far-reaching consequences for both Iraq and the United States, which consider the Iranian-born cleric as perhaps the most powerful figure in Iraq and a vital stabilizing force in the oil-rich Shiite heartlands of southern Iraq. The most worrisome scenario is that - as al-Sistani's vast clout possibly wanes - the majority Shiites could further splinter into factions that could rattle Iraq's Shiite-led government and boost militias openly hostile to Washington. Such an upheaval also would strike a direct blow to U.S. goals in the coming year: shoring up the government and its security forces while trying to consolidate military gains against Sunni insurgents led by al-Qaida in Iraq.

Al-Sistani - whose exact age is not known, but who is believed to be 79 or 80 - has not been seen in public since a brief appearance in August 2004, shortly after returning from medical treatment in London for an unspecified heart condition. But even behind the scenes, his mix of religious authority and political sway make him more powerful than any elected leader in Iraq, including the president and his prime minister. Recently, however, al-Sistani has noticeably lightened his schedule, according to a range of officials interviewed by The Associated Press.

al-Qaeda in Iraq

This week, the Post published an interesting article about al-Qaeda in Iraq's (AQI) attempts to win back many of the disaffected Iraqi Sunnis who have risen in opposition to its harsh tactics. It provides a good overview of the plight of the terror group in recent months. A couple excerpts:

The Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq is telling its followers to soften their tactics in order to regain popular support in the western province of Anbar, where Sunni tribes have turned against the organization and begun working with U.S. forces, according to group leaders and American intelligence officials. The new approach was outlined last month in an internal communique that orders members to avoid killing Sunni civilians who have not sympathized with the U.S.-backed tribesmen or the government.

From internal documents and interviews with members of al-Qaeda in Iraq, a picture emerges of an organization in disarray but increasingly aware that its harsh policies - such as punishing women who don't cover their heads - have eroded its popular support. Over the past year, the group has been driven out of many of its strongholds. The group's leadership is now jettisoning some of its past tactics to refocus attacks on American troops, Sunnis cooperating closely with U.S. forces, and Iraq's infrastructure.

The U.S. military says it destroyed much of the leadership of al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2007, killing 2,400 suspected members and capturing 8,800, while pushing the group almost completely out of Baghdad and Anbar province. Although U.S. officials and their Sunni allies caution that al-Qaeda in Iraq remains dangerous and could find ways to regenerate, they assert that the group now is largely a spent force.

By all accounts, the number of foreign fighters entering Iraq has plunged. The U.S. military said the number sneaking in from Syria has dropped from 110 a month in late summer to about 40 to 50 a month now. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is a predominantly Iraqi group, but the U.S. military says it is led by Arabs from outside the country.

Huckabee is still my front-runner. Read about my experience seeing Huckabee and McCain before the Kansas GOP Caucus

Governor Mike Huckabee and Senator John McCain both conducted campaign events in Kansas today (02/08) to rally up support before tomorrow’s Republican Caucus, the first in almost 20 years.

Both candidates’ schedules allowed me the opportunity to attend both events in Wichita. At 11:00 a.m. I joined approximately 1,000 Kansans to see Governor Huckabee. We were all packed in a hangar at the Jabara Airport. Huckabee first took to the stage with the local band Color Blind and jammed out on his base guitar to a song by Lynard Skynard and another one by Stevie Ray Vaughn. Huckabee proved to the crowd that he is musically talented and it was a good way to create energy amongst those in attendance. Huckabee then spoke for approximately 45 minutes about his experience growing up in Arkansas, serving as Lt. Governor and Governor, and his vision for America and his desire to become President. He spoke about being pro-life, supporting the 2nd Amendment, reducing the size of the federal government, and reforming the tax code by supporting the Fair Tax. He also spoke about securing the border, allowing veterans the opportunity to see doctors locally, and maintaining a strong military. He certainly captured the attention of the audience and he very much lived up to the reputation of being the most likeable candidate.

Two hours after Huckabee left the stage I went across town to the Mid-Continent Airport and attended the McCain rally at Hawker Beechcraft. The crowd was noticeably smaller for McCain – approximately 300 people. However, McCain had a larger entourage as he was accompanied by Senator Sam Brownback and other representatives from the State’s GOP. The atmosphere was hardly that of a front-runner and the McCain supporters were not very enthusiastic. McCain also appeared to struggle with his words as he referred to Hawker Beechcraft as “Hawker Cessna” - I wondered at times if McCain knew where he was. His age is a question that should be raised since the job of being President is probably the most grueling and stressful job one could have. The rest of his speech seemed predictable as he continued to try and re-label himself from being a “maverick” to a “true conservative.” He also spoke about how he would personally follow Osama bin Laden to the “Gates of Hell” if that is what it takes to bring him to justice.

Going into today’s events I was a Huckabee supporter and after leaving I proudly remain a Huckabee supporter. It was a special day for me and other Kansans as we do not usually have the opportunity to see Presidential candidates. I plan to get out and Caucus for Huckabee tomorrow and it is my hope that he wins the delegates of Kansas and continues to build upon it in the days and weeks ahead.

Best. Day. Ever!

To ensure that this great country of ours does not have to surrender to terrorists, Mitt Romney dropped out of the race for President today. What a brave and patriotic soul! Here's a sample of the feedback of a grateful nation...who says $40 million of your own personal fortune doesn't buy you love?

"Good riddance!"

"Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!"

"Perhaps they’ll enlist you to save the China Olympics."

"I guess this is his final flip-flop… "

"Let’s hope that this man who has no core principles, who will say anything to get elected, will leave the political stage once and for all. "

"Awesome! Now his sons are free to go to Iraq!"

Ah, our valiant hero.

The Ramblings of a Desperate Base

Ann Coulter’s latest hysterical ramblings are only noteworthy because of their growing desperation. With the nomination of John McCain becoming more and more inevitable, watching the talking heads of the hateful wing of the Republican Party self-destruct is becoming more and more entertaining. Here’s a taste of the latest example of Coulter's devolution:

Nominating McCain is the gesture of a desperate party. Republicans are so shell-shocked and demoralized by the success of the Bush Derangement Syndrome, they think they can fool the voters by nominating an open-borders, anti-tax cut, anti-free speech, global-warming hysteric, pro-human experimentation "Republican." Which is to say, a Democrat…

On the litmus test issues of our time, only partially excluding Iraq, McCain is a liberal.

- He excoriated Samuel Alito as too "conservative."

- He promoted amnesty for 20 million illegal immigrants.

- He abridged citizens' free speech (in favor of the media) with McCain-Feingold.

- He hysterically opposes waterboarding terrorists and wants to shut down Guantanamo.

- He denounced the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

- He opposes ANWR and supports the global warming cult, even posturing with fellow mountebank Arnold Schwarzenegger in front of solar panels.

The only site that would have been more appropriate for Schwarzenegger in endorsing McCain would have been in front of an abortion clinic.

After more rambling about McCain’s liberalism, she finally unveils her ultimate motive…

If Hillary is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with Republicans ferociously opposing her, followed by Republicans zooming back into power, as we did in 1980 and 1994, and 2000. (I also predict more Oval Office incidents with female interns.)

If McCain is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with the Republicans in Congress co-opted by "our" president, followed by 30 years of Democratic rule.

So there it is, Republicans of the "true base." You might as well stay home on election day and concede this one because Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh are telling you so. You've aimlessly followed them for years...no sense in stopping now.