Political Transformation in Iowa

Former Bush speechwriter, Michael Gerson, comments on the recent endorsement of Mike Huckabee by Jim Gilchrist. Gilchrist is founder of the Minuteman Project, an activist anti-immigrant organization that many have called a hate group or, at the very least, a xenophobic organization that espouses intolerance and relies upon the exploitation of American fears and insecurities.

While many would spur, or at least blush from, Gilchrist’s endorsement, the Huckabee campaign has fully embraced it. The candidate who speaks of bringing together, the candidate with reasonable and humane stances on immigration as Governor, again shuns his principles for political expediency by further kowtowing to the Republican base that will ultimately derail his message and his entire campaign. Gerson writes:

I am predisposed to like Mike Huckabee for his commitment to economic mobility, his firm but nonjudgmental social conservatism and his Christian concern for the poor. But Huckabee's embrace of Gilchrist and his recent shifts on immigration policy undermine the core of his appeal: authenticity. From the G-rated, family-values candidate, this is the kind of politics that should be covered with brown paper, kept under the counter and hidden from children.

Gilchrist is not just another voice on immigration. He is one of the most divisive figures in the most divisive debate in American politics. In 2006, responding to pro-immigration demonstrations, he told the Orange County Register, "I'm not going to promote insurrection, but if it happens, it will be on the conscience of the members of Congress who are doing this. I will not promote violence in resolving this, but I will not stop others who might pursue that." Note the oily formulation -- not promoting, but also not criticizing, the resort to political violence. "I'm willing to see my country go into battle if necessary," he added, "for our sovereignty and to be governed by rule of law."

Gilchrist has called for the impeachment of President Bush over the issue of border enforcement. He has made noises about running for president as a third-party candidate because of his disdain for Republicans. This is an odd choice of company for a candidate who promotes a conservatism without anger.

…Huckabee has accompanied his choice of new friends with an immigration plan that would require 12 million illegal immigrants to return home before applying for permanent status -- a completely unrealistic approach borrowed from anti-immigration activists. Huckabee's campaign regards this evolution as immunization against Mitt Romney's immigration attack ads -- and it may work in the short run. But a political shift this transparent raises questions about the quality and seriousness of Huckabee's campaign.

Huckabee's main appeal has been his homespun decency. But his behavior on immigration has been a kind of politics-as-usual so blatant it is actually unusual. Huckabee is managing to compromise his most distinctive virtue at the very moment the attention of the public is focused on his candidacy. In politics, a candidate can bend over backward so far that his spine snaps.

I can’t help but think that the blatant pandering of Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani to the Republican base will ultimately leave the door wide open for a John McCain resurgence.

Politics as usual?

Until recently everyone has raved about Senator Clinton’s disciplined, efficient, well-run campaign. Now the campaign is seemingly scrambling to win in Iowa and handle “unauthorized” statements by Bill Shaheen. Senator Clinton has since apologized to Obama. However, following apologies from the Clinton camp and the firing of Shaheen, Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief strategist, tried to subtly connect Obama to Cocaine on MSNBC’s “Hardaball.” – “The issue related to cocaine use is not something the campaign is in any way raising.” This is politics as usual

It’s become increasingly obvious that Shaheen’s statement was a calculated move, perhaps not approved by Hillary herself, but nonetheless done to connect Obama to cocaine and all off its negative connotations in voters’ minds. To add, this story has legs and successfully replaced the positive stories about Obama’s surge in the polls and the Oprah.

This is what Pat Buchanan had to say about Shaheen, "Look, this is an experienced man. His wife has been governor of New Hampshire. He's an able fellow. And to go to the Washington Post and say, ask about selling drugs. ... Nobody thinks that up. Somebody fed that to him. I don't know where it came from. But you use the term even in the open, drug dealer. That is a killer" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 12/13).

While I do not hold Buchanan to have the most brilliant political mind out there, nor do I know anything about Shaheen, his statement echoes my own thoughts of why Shaheen would say such a thing and also why it won’t necessarily hurt Clinton as much as it will hurt Obama by planting another seed of doubt in voters’ minds.

Lets Try This Again

Coming on the heels of the “Alan Keyes et al. GOP Debate”, the Democratic presidential candidates squared off in what would be their final debate before the Iowa Caucuses . In what seemed to be a much more fluid and substantive debate (either the moderator worked out the kinks from the day before or the candidates were simply more polished and substantive - probably both), all of the candidates showed us glimpses of why they deserve to be in this race.

For the most part, Obama and Clinton fought to a draw - an outcome that will undoubtedly be seen as an Obama victory. The two also provided one of the best off-the-cuff moments of the debate – score another for Obama.

It's also becoming clear that as Joe Biden continues to impress on the issues and as folks begin to learn more about the man and his life’s journey, the more plausible a top-3 finish in Iowa becomes. Much of his growing support will likely come from the front-runners and the undecided vote, but the rest could largely come from Richardson and essentially knock him out of the ballgame. Despite an impressive resume and tremendous experience, Richardson is simply not that good of a candidate and fails to impress each step of the way.

On the other hand, John Edwards showed us glimpses of the John Edwards that captivated Democrats in 2004. For supporters, his ability to reach voters through his eloquence hasn’t shown through as much this time around, but it’s certainly refreshing to see.

To remember that in the midst of political hoopla, the glorification of politicians and presidential candidates, that somewhere in American tonight, a child will go to bed hungry; somewhere in America tonight, a family will have to go to the emergency room and beg for health care for a sick child; that somewhere in American today, a father who's worked for 30 or 40 years to support his family will lose his job.

And if that's what's at stake in this election. What's not at stake are any of us. All of us are going to be just fine no matter what happens in this election. But what's at stake is whether America is going to be fine.

Given that Edwards has the best organization in Iowa and got his kick-start in 2004 from a solid showing in the Caucuses, a top-3 finish for his campaign is critical.

Chris Cillizza offers his debate winners and loser.

Support That's Hard to Come By

As the presidential candidates continue to fight for influential endorsements, one group has proven largely immune to excessive courting, even from its own colleagues – the United States Senate. As Paul Kane reports, these endorsements remain highly coveted, especially in key battleground states, yet have become much more difficult to come by. To date, "the two leading recipients of senatorial endorsements are Clinton, with nine, and McCain, with 10."

“(For all of the frivolity), one thing remains odd about the senators-turned-candidates and their relationships inside the chamber: Very few of their colleagues have bothered to endorse their candidacies.

On both the Democratic and Republican side of the aisle, barely a third of the Senate has endorsed a candidate. Despite - or perhaps because of - the intensifying battle for the nomination, just 22 of the 48 Senate Republicans have endorsed a candidate for president (exempting Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) since he obviously endorses his own bid).

More stunning, just 12 of the 47 senators in the Democratic caucus have endorsed a candidate for the Democratic nomination (exempting the four vying for that nomination).

…This is in sharp contrast to the House, where basically half of the 435 members have endorsed candidates. While just 25 percent of Senate Democrats have sided with a candidate, 122 House Democrats -- more than 50 percent -- have gotten out front of the campaign and endorsed.

A huge majority of senators appear to have made the calculation that is simply better to wait for a clear winner to emerge, avoiding any risk of siding with a loser and engendering ill will with the eventual nominee.

Is that Alan Keyes? Oh Dear...

Earlier this week, the American public (well, those who were watching Iowa public television in the middle of the afternoon) were all subject to what Charles Krauthammer dubbed, "the worst debate in western history, and that includes the ancient Greeks." The aftermath of the Des Moines Register-sponsored Republican presidential debate consisted mostly of head-scratching and shell-shocked pundits asking each other “what the hell just happened?”

It certainly wasn’t because of the political fireworks generated, or any raised level of discourse. It was more because of the awkwardness of it all….and because of the strange reappearance of Alan Keyes, someone we all thought (and desperately hoped) was out of our lives forever.

To me, the low and high point of the debate occured when the moderator asked for a show of hands from those who believe global climate change is a serious threat. Fred Thompson-led pandemonium quickly broke out as each candidate sheepishly tried to distance themselves from such an absurd contention. Well, all of the candidates except one. And it just happened to be the one candidate who couldn’t raise either of his hands because five years of torture in a Hanoi prison camp prevent him from even being able to comb his own hair. The statement that followed from John McCain was as articulate as it was principled, especially given the mood in that room. It was just another one of those McCain moments when so clearly transcends everything around him and wins us over.

Otherwise, yes, the moderator did look like a strange morphing of Senator Amy Klobuchar and that mean lady from the Weakest Link. And yes, the only thing reassuring about the reappearance of Keyes was that he's still as crazy as we remember. This time around, he may have failed to announce an endorsement from Jesus Christ or that all homosexuals were selfish hedonists, but he did give us a couple more special moments.

Chris Cillizza provides a good breakdown of the debate winners and losers.

Congress and Christmas

One of the more controversial stories being reported on Capital Hill this week deals with Christmas. On Tuesday, December 11, H.Res. 847, a bill recognizing the importance of Christmas and the Christian faith was passed by the House of Representatives. The bill in and of itself doesn’t seem controversial since it overwhelmingly passed 372-9 with 10 voting “Present” and 40 representatives not voting. The controversy to some including the bill’s lead sponsor, Rep. Steve King (IA-5), is the fact that the nine that voted in opposition have also voted to support similar resolutions honoring the holidays of Islam and Hinduism – all of which passed without any Nay (NO) votes. In an interview with Fox News Rep. King said "The [nine] naysayers didn’t make it to the floor to debate. I would like to know how they could vote Yes on Islam, Yes on the Indian Religions and No on Christianity when the foundation of this nation and our American culture is Christianity…I think there’s an assault on Christianity in America.”

While I agree with most of what Rep. King said – Christians need not the approval of Congress to justify their faith. The politics of America will change when the heart of America changes.

The Drug Stigma

A story broke yesterday that “a high-ranking advisor to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign said Wednesday that rival Barack Obama's public admission that he has used cocaine and marijuana could seriously hinder the Illinois senator’s chances of winning a general election matchup.” It wasn’t long before that high ranking official, Bill Shaheen, back tracked from his comments and resigned from his role in the Clinton campaign. Whether this dig was calculated or truly a gaffe is up for debate among political pundits. Either way, it’s taken the national media’s attention off the fact that Obama is surging in Iowa.

On a related note, George Bush talked about his struggle with alcohol abuse in an interview with ABC admitting that had never been a "knee-walking drunk," but that "I doubt I'd be standing here if I hadn't quit drinking whiskey, and beer, and wine and all that." Tom Brokaw also revealed in his new book, “The Greatest Generation,” that “he did inhale, and not just once.” Finally, earlier this year, New York Mayor Michal Bloomberg may have given marijuana use a ringing endorsement when he said that not only had he tried it, but enjoyed it.

This leads me to wonder if past drug use, legal or illegal, is losing its stigma. If anything, voters appreciate the candor, but the brutal truth is that it wouldn’t be brought up if it didn’t still impact how voters perceive a candidates’ judgment. Undoubtedly, if Obama gets the nod, his admitted drug use will come up again.

Oprah on the Trail

Say what you want about celebrities entering into the political fray, but it’s clear that Oprah was about the only supporter with the gravitas to challenge Bill Clinton for headlines in this campaign. And as it turns out, she was damn good on the stump. While exposing thousands of folks to the Obama message of change and hope, she also spoke of seizing opportunities and not simply "waiting your turn" - "We must respond to the pressures and the fortunes of history when the moment strikes…and I believe that moment is now." And regarding the question of experience - "The amount of time you've spent in Washington means nothing unless you're accountable for the judgments you've made with the time you've had."

Sure, these events were mostly stunts to garner media attention, headlines, and donations, but aren't campaigns little more than a series of stunts? While Oprah's appearances may or may not bring in more money or generate more support for Obama, they bring a new energy to the campaign. I think that is important...and that is something that not even Bill Clinton can provide his candidate at this point.

Secular Europe

There was an interesting column by Roger Cohen in the Times today that provided "secular Europe's" response to the Romney speech on faith.

“The Continent has paid a heavy price in blood for religious fervor and decided some time ago, as a French king put it, that “Paris is well worth a Mass.” Romney, a Republican presidential candidate, was dismissive of European societies “too busy or too ‘enlightened’ to venture inside and kneel in prayer.” He thereby pointed to what has become the principal transatlantic cultural divide.

Europeans still take the Enlightenment seriously enough not to put it inside quote marks. They have long found an inspiring reflection of it in the first 16 words of the American Bill of Rights of 1791: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.”

Thomas Jefferson saw those words as “building a wall of separation between church and state.” So, much later, did John F. Kennedy, who in a speech predating Romney’s by 47 years, declared: “I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute.”

The absolute has proved porous.

…Religion informed America’s birth. But its distancing from politics was decisive to the republic’s success. Indeed, the devastating European experience of religious war influenced the founders’ thinking. That is why I find Romney’s speech and the society it reflects far more troubling than Europe’s vacant cathedrals.

…Romney rejects the “religion of secularism,” of which Europe tends to be proud. But he should consider that Washington is well worth a Mass. The fires of the reformation that reduced St. Andrews Cathedral to ruin are fires of faith that endure in different, but no less explosive, forms. Jefferson’s “wall of separation” must be restored if those who would destroy the West’s Enlightenment values are to be defeated.

A Man of his Times

Just when we thought we didn’t have Alberto Gonzalez to kick around anymore, he arises once again to add to an already checkered resume. Once a Texas Secretary of State, member of the Texas State Supreme Court, White House Counsel, and Attorney General, he can now claim the illustrious title of “Lawyer of the Year” for 2007. Congratulations Mr. Gonzalez, maybe now we’ll remember you as something more than an incompetent crony who put loyalties to one man and one political party over your constitutional responsibilities and our nation’s best interests.

By the way, is it bad when one of the men responsible for you receiving the award compares it to Stalin and Hitler winning Time’s Person of the Year?

"Everything and Nothing at All"

In light of an important breakthrough in which scientists successfully manipulated skin cells to take on the qualities of pluripotent stem cells, long-time opponents of federal funding of embryonic stem cell research were quick to claim victory and vindication.

In the words of Michael Kinsley, “The issue has been agony for many Republicans, torn between the majority of voters, eager for the benefits of this scientific advance, and the small but intense minority who believe that a clump of a few dozen cells floating in a petri dish has the same human rights as you or I.”

In a compelling column recently in Time, Kinsley offered a number of reasons for why this issue will not go away - that “even the scientists who achieved the latest success believe strongly that embryonic-stem-cell research should continue”, that we can not make up for the time we have already lost, that the “moral dilemma” posed by politicians is still not real, and that “the position a politician takes on an issue (still) tells you something about his or her character, values and intellect.”

As Alan Leshner and James Thomson, two respected experts on the issue, contend - this breakthrough “changes both everything and nothing at all.”

Romney Goes Negative

In the first negative ad of the Iowa Republican primary, Romney comes out swinging against Huckabee. Given recent polling, it was obvious that the Romney campaign had no choice but to go negative. And it’s not surprising that the attack would be leveled against Huckabee’s record on immigration – something the two candidates had debated on a number of occasions.

What’s interesting is that the move appears to be backfiring on Romney, not because he is better on the issue than Huckabee (which he certainly isn’t), but because he’s the first candidate to go negative on the airwaves - and who does so against the one candidate that has nearly universal likeability. Whatever initial appeal the Romney ad had to staunch opponents of illegal immigration has quickly been tempered by the folksy tone of Huckabee’s response and a timely endorsement by the founder of the Minuteman Project.

It’s ironic that the antagonist who raised the stakes by politicizing the issue of faith is now being portrayed as the victim, while the candidate who was merely trying to change the subject is vilified. Score another one for the Teflon preacher.

The Huckabee Crusade

In Iowa, the growing appeal of the Mike Huckabee phenomenon can be largely attributed to the way his style and manner contrasts with Mitt Romney. Romney is the Ken Doll of presidential candidates – his shameless pandering and flexible principles, as well as his perfect hair and expensive suits, embody everything we have grown to distrust in politicians. On the other hand, Huckabee is one of the rare candidates who can draw you in with his eloquence, his genuineness, and his natural charm. If Romney was cold and calculating, many saw Huckabee as sincere and principled. If Romney is ivory towers and country clubs, Huckabee is the neighbor you’d invite over for dinner. And to top things off, he was the candidate who ushered in the much-anticipated arrival of Chuck Norris into presidential politics.

But as the issue of faith becomes more prominent in this campaign, some of Huckabee’s luster is wearing off and he’s beginning to resemble the typical politician we so desperately hoped he wasn’t. Don’t get me wrong, I respect Huckabee because I truly believe his sincerity of faith may run deeper than anyone else in the race. And it’s important that he has invoked the tenants of his faith in commendable efforts as Governor to provide health insurance for lower income children, alleviate poverty, and support a humane immigration policy…even if he distances himself from those stances today. Until recently, he spoke of his faith sincerely and articulately, and in a way that even secular Americans could clearly understand and appreciate.

Sadly, to cement his base of support among Iowa Evangelicals and fend off Romney down the home stretch, he has resorted to the politicization of his faith – a disturbing and growing trend in Republican politics. Americans have almost become resigned to these tactics but we also thought Mike Huckabee was different. He was the Baptist Minister with the theology degree who relied on his faith to bring us together, not tear us apart. Now he is the candidate who plays the religion card to exploit the insecurities of those who hold prejudice against others who may or may not be “Christians.”

The temptation for Huckabee to employ these tactics was inevitable but we hoped he wouldn’t take the bait. Now that he has, it has cheapened his campaign and it has cheapened the very faith he espouses. In the end, is it more about the origins of a particular faith and which bible you read (or do not read), or is it more about how the followers of a particular faith, or even those who don’t adhere to a particular faith, choose to live their lives? Calling someone out for falling under a different religious category, especially if you are a “Christian leader” such as a Baptist Minister, is nothing more than a shameless way of appealing to the worst in people.

His tactics may ultimately appeal in a Republican primary where a number of ideologues genuinely believe someone is a lesser person because of their particular faith, but it will surely backfire. When it comes to faith and politics, I believe the American people, even a good number of Republicans, want change. We are tired of a president who uses his faith to justify waging war, to veto vital funding for medical research, and to write discrimination into the Constitution. We want someone to bring us together, not someone to tear us farther apart.

Connecting with an Audience

Another reason for Huckabee's rise? An interesting take on the role that body language plays in influencing how voter's will make their decision. Check out Drew Weston's book, "The Political Brain," for a good analysis on the role that emotion plays in influencing the way people vote. Drew cites some interesting studies demonstrating that how someone "feels" about a candidate is the best predictor of how they'll vote. Where does policy fall? 5th on the list.

A Forgotten Issue

The fact that John Edwards is the first “front tier” candidate to declare his intention to run for president is newsworthy in itself, but the way he chose to make his announcement was even more so.

Standing in blue jeans and work boots in a New Orleans neighborhood devastated by Katrina, he spoke of poverty and citizen activism. The location was chosen because, to him, it symbolized his campaign theme of two Americas and was exemplary in both positive and negative senses, as a symbol of citizen action and government inaction. It symbolized “the power of ordinary citizens to take responsibility for their own futures” but it also symbolized the government’s incompetence in the aftermath of Katrina and its refusal to treat the issue of poverty as a moral imperative.

More and more, Edwards has become reminiscent of another Democratic presidential candidate from 40 years ago. And although John Edwards and Bobby Kennedy will ultimately be defined by the times in which they lived, their similarities may outnumber their differences. Each were tempered by a personal tragedy that fundamentally altered their life, and each (at the time of their presidential campaign) was a one-term senator with youthful good lucks, personal wealth, a fairly liberal voting record, and a thick accent that highlighted their regional upbringing. Moreover, each led a campaign focused on the issue of poverty that called on all Americans to do their part and to be patriotic for “something other than war.”

But it’s also true that Edwards doesn’t necessarily embody all of which made Bobby Kennedy who he was. After all, we may never see another candidate capable of invoking that same level of passion among the electorate. We knew Bobby too well. Because of his family, he was constantly under the spotlight. We watched him achieve unprecedented professional success at a young age, and we watched him suffer through overwhelming personal tragedy. Many supported him and what he represented, but many others felt personally vested in him. When war and bigotry divided our country, he was the one we turned to. He was the standard bearer of hope and reassurance capable of uniting us again. After Martin Luther King, Jr. was killed, it seemed as if he was the only one left.

To the impoverished mining families of Appalachia, it may have initially seemed awkward to bear their soul to a young millionaire senator from New York, but that feeling soon faded. For once, someone was there to listen; someone who embodied compassion and sincerity and strove to not only speak, but to act on their behalf. And he had the ability and influence to make good on his promises. Far from a phony, he was a saint. He became an advocate for those with no voice of their own; a true champion of the people.

Today, Edwards (the southern populist) speaks to that same issue but it’s unclear how effective he will be. After all, the issue of poverty is looked upon quite differently than it was 40 years ago. Unlike RFK and to his credit, Edwards is actually a product of humble beginnings (a mill worker’s son) and can credit his ambition and hard work, not his family estate, for his personal wealth. In fact, it is a wealth earned from years of representing the interests of everyday Americans who fell victim to powerful corporations and insurance companies. As a result, representing the powerless is natural to him because it’s an issue that he knows all too well. Long before Katrina brought renewed attention to the issue of poverty, Edwards was speaking on behalf of impoverished America and highlighting the moral responsibility of our government to provide for those less fortunate. In February of 2005, his efforts led to the establishment of a Center on Poverty, Work and Opportunity at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Depending upon its resonance with the American people, I’m hopeful that Edwards can adapt his message effectively throughout the upcoming campaign. But in doing so, it’s imperative that he not undermine the needed focus and moral clarity that conveying this message provides. The issue of poverty is conspicuously absent from today’s political discourse and the people are desperately looking for a capable new voice, a new champion. Like Bobby Kennedy 40 years ago, John Edwards may be the only one left for us to turn to.