The Consequences of War

In defending the war, its proponents often fall back on certain “truths” when they get backed into a corner by those pointing to worsening conditions on the ground. They claim that as bad as things may seem, at least the Iraqis have been liberated from the oppressive tyrant who massacred thousands of their countrymen and women over the past 20 or so years. Their lives are now blessed by the liberties we have helped provide for them. Don’t you remember the ink-stained fingers held high in triumph and in defiance to the terrorists? That would have never been possible under Saddam.

While there have been significant, even historic, events that have inspired us and given us hope that this war has been worthwhile and just, its implications are far too significant to let that assertion go unquestioned. Just ask yourself, is the life of the average Iraqi better off today than it was prior to the U.S. invasion in March of 2003?

Since that invasion, reports indicate that up to 1.6 million Iraqis have fled the country with their families because they’ve found the growing violence and instability unbearable. That number is increasing every day with most families (an estimated 100,000 per month) settling in Jordan and Syria, and others in Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt, various Gulf States and Europe.

As alarming as that number may be, what’s equally alarming is that a good portion of those fleeing the country are the very people needed most in the rebuilding of a prosperous and tolerant Iraqi society. Instead of serving as high priority targets for would-be kidnappers seeking a high ransom (a reported $36 million a year industry), approximately 40 percent of Iraqi professionals, including doctors and teachers, are fleeing the war-torn country in increasing numbers. In addition, because they’ve been increasingly targeted by death squads, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 Iraqi Christians have now fled the country.

There is also a refugee crisis within Iraq. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees now estimates that more than 1.5 million Iraqis are internally displaced, nearly half a million since February. The International Organization for Migration estimates that 9,000 Iraqis are being driven out of their homes each and every week, many to the relative security of northern Iraq.

Since the onset of the war, estimates of Iraqi civilian fatalities range from 40,000 to several hundred thousand. As violence has raged increasingly throughout the year, more and more corpses of men, women, and children have been discovered each day. Many are simply dumped in groups by sectarian death squads along roadsides or in rivers, and most are barely distinguishable because of the acid burns, bullet holes, or electric drill holes that cover their bodies. In Baghdad, a recent estimate categorized sixty-five percent of all deaths as unidentified corpses. Overall, more Iraqi civilians were killed during last month than in any other month since the invasion. According to a U.N. report, 3,709 Iraqis were killed, up slightly from the previous high in July, and an increase of about 11 percent from the number in September.

While we have rough estimates of the number of Iraqis killed each month, the extent of these numbers is difficult to determine, partially because the Iraqi government is taking steps to restrict the release of these figures. What we do know is that city morgues across Iraq have taken steps to expand their capacities because they can no longer accommodate for the growing number of corpses. In some cases, bodies are even being turned away. In other cases, bodies are buried in unmarked graves without their families being able to claim them, simply because they are too afraid to collect them. When it’s deemed safe enough, these families bribe cemetery workers to dig up the remains of their loved ones so they might have a proper burial.

If you’re a Sunni victim, there’s an increasing likelihood that you will meet a similar fate even if you make it to an Iraqi hospital for treatment. Moqtada al-Sadr allies in the Iraqi Health Ministry will see to that. The systematic killing of Sunni patients in hospitals in Baghdad and Karbala has almost become common-place.

And it keeps getting worse…. This past Thursday, bombings in Sadr City killed more than 200. The New York Times reports:

Since those attacks, quasi-armies of residents in mixed and majority-Sunni Arab neighborhoods have formed to protect their streets. Sunni Web sites are offering advice on how to kill Shiite militiamen. College students and executives pace at their homes, clutching rifles and handguns around the clock. Iraqis are posting pleas on Internet message boards to buy extra ammunition and weapons.

Despite a government-imposed curfew, Iraqis described Shiite militiamen murdering Sunnis at checkpoints, controlling neighborhoods with impunity and conspiring with Iraq's majority-Shiite police force, which the Interior Ministry controls. Other Iraqis spoke of mortar shells raining on their mosques and gun battles outside their houses, deepening their mistrust of Iraq's security forces and elected politicians.

As a result of the violence and instability, basic services for the average Iraqi lag below their pre-war levels. Areas throughout the country, particularly in Baghdad, receive less hours a day of electricity than before the war. Schools remain closed across the country because of the increasing number of Education Ministry employees and teachers who have been targeted. The country’s unemployment rate ranges from 25 percent to 50 percent. Since unemployment in the Kurdish north remains relatively low, that number is disproportionately high throughout the rest of country, particularly the western provinces.

Iraq’s oil production is still below its pre-war levels and Iraqi oil refineries are refining half of their pre-war total, resulting in widespread fuel shortages. To compensate, although it has the 3rd largest proven reserves of oil in the world, Iraq is planning on spending an estimated $800 million on imported refined oil products from its neighbors. It is now estimated that from January of 2004 to March of 2006, Iraq lost a potential $16 billion in oil exports.

The list goes on and on.

In summary, Iraq is in complete disarray and its citizens are suffering the consequences. While we can question which seeds for this disarray were sown during the totalitarianism of Saddam Hussein, it is undeniable that all have been exacerbated by the American invasion. On its own, Saddam’s removal from power was for the benefit of the Iraqi people. However, that act, coupled with the ensuing mismanagement of the war and the dramatic miscalculation of its consequences, may very well have been to their detriment.

Before, Iraqis dare not speak out against their government because of the consequences of defying Saddam Hussein. Today, those same Iraqis are changing their names or sleeping with AK-47s to protect their families and to avoid being slaughtered. These Iraqis must live every day with the consequences of a pre-emptive war our government chose to wage on their doorsteps. Most suffer, not because of what they have done or through any fault of their own, but simply because of who they are and where they were born.

The realization that the Iraqi people are worse off today than they were under Saddam Hussein is a sobering short-term prognosis, but it does not have to be the final judgment. We are at a turning point in the War in Iraq and the decisions made by our government over the next 4 to 6 months will undoubtedly have a dramatic impact on what that final judgment will be.