Showing posts with label Evan Bayh. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Evan Bayh. Show all posts

Friday, August 15, 2008

Veepstakes Cont.

Today’s Fix ranks the prospective vice presidential candidates. As Chris Cillizza points out, the choice for Obama is between “change and experience” - does he opt for someone who reinforces his fresh approach or does he opt for someone well-known who can bring experience to the ticket? For McCain, the choice is between “throwing a short pass or a Hail Mary" – does he opt for the safe pick in someone personally close to him or does he opt for someone unexpected and unorthodox who could shake up the race? The updated rankings:


The Republicans

5. Bobby Jindal: The chatter surrounding the Louisiana governor has died down significantly of late but we still believe that if McCain decides on making a true surprise pick, Jindal's the guy. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Mitt Romney: On the one hand, Romney seems to make the most sense for McCain -- shoring up the ticket's economic bona fides and helping the nominee in Michigan and New Hampshire. On the other, McCain is a total "gut" politician and, if he trusts his instincts, he's not likely to pick someone with whom he is not close personally. (Previous ranking: 1)

3. Joe Lieberman: Believe it -- the Connecticut Democrat-cum-Independent is very much in the mix for McCain. Why? Lieberman has long been supportive of McCain's position on the war in Iraq and the two men like each other immensely. Plus, picking Lieberman could be spun by pro-McCain forces as yet another example of his commitment to bipartisanship. (Previous ranking: N/A)

2. Tom Ridge: The former Pennsylvania governor is the hottest name in the Republican veepstakes - due in large part to McCain's repeated praise of him and the growing sense that the Arizona Senator is seriously considering a pro-choice pick. Ridge would almost certainly put Pennsylvania more squarely in play and would also allow McCain to double down on the national security message in the general election. (Previous ranking: N/A)

1. Tim Pawlenty: Tpaw returns to the top of the Line thanks to the fact that out of all true "Final Four" lists he checks the most boxes. He is pro-life, has been elected twice as governor in a swing Midwestern state and has a personal friendship with McCain. Is it enough? (Previous ranking: 2)

The Democrats

5. Kathleen Sebelius: There's no question that of the names on this list, Obama feels closest to Sebelius and Tim Kaine. But, is a close personal relationship enough? Sebelius' star has faltered somewhat as some within Democratic circles have come to believe the Kansas governor is not ready for such a big stage. And, can Obama really choose a woman not named Clinton as his vice president? (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Jack Reed: Perhaps the least buzzed about serious vice presidential candidate in history, the Rhode Island senator remains a real option. And, if security is the central theme of the convention, Reed could be a perfect fit: his resume includes a stint in the U.S. Army and service on the Senate Armed Services Committee. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Tim Kaine: In naming former Virginia governor Mark Warner as the convention keynote speaker earlier this week, the Obama campaign either a) closed the door on Kaine as veep or b) opened the door for a Virginia-centric convention designed to highlight the importance of that swing state. We tend to believe option "a" though the Virginia governor's early support for Obama should not be underplayed as a factor in the final decision. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Evan Bayh: To the extent there was buzz around Bayh - those words don't usually end up in the same sentence together - it has died down over the last week. Some in the party - especially those on the liberal left - believe picking Bayh would be a sell-out of the principles that won Obama the nomination. The Indiana senator and former governor remains very much in the running, however, thanks to his Midwestern roots, his executive experience and his youth. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Joe Biden: Biden is peaking at the right time. Barely mentioned at the start of the veepstakes, he is now the favorite to be the pick. Biden's deep foreign policy resume, charisma, blue-collar appeal and debate skills all recommend him. And, the normally loquacious Biden has been stone silent over the last few weeks -- stoking speculation that he is the one. (Previous ranking: 3)

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

North Carolina and Indiana: Winners and Losers

The Fix lays out the winners and losers from the North Carolina and Indiana primaries.

WINNERS

Black Voters: Time and time again, African American voters have propelled Obama in the nomination fight. From South Carolina's primary through Feb. 5 states like Georgia and Alabama and into Tuesday night's result in North Carolina, black voters turned out in record numbers and lined up solidly behind Obama. One-in-every-three voters in North Carolina were black and Obama won a whopping 91 percent of them. Make no mistake: If and when Obama formally becomes the nominee, he will owe the black community a significant debt of gratitude.

"Dream Ticket": The polite victory speeches of Clinton and Obama - full of kind words for each other and gestures of potential outreach - drove cable commentators wild about the possibility of the New York senator accepting a spot on the ticket as vice president. Harold Ford Jr., a former Democratic congressman from Tennessee, broached the possibility during an appearance on MSNBC, telling hosts Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann that a shared ticket is "something that this party is going to have to think very seriously about in the next few weeks." Somewhere House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) is rolling her eyes.

Rush Limbaugh: Whether or not you believe in "Operation Chaos," the conservative talk radio host got lots and lots of credit for disrupting the Democratic race. Obama's campaign sent out several e-mails touting Limbaugh's call for Republicans to cross over and support Clinton (thereby extending the Democratic contest). And exit polling showed that Republicans made up 11 percent of the vote in Indiana, and that bloc went to Clinton by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. The Limbaugh Effect? That probably gives the conservative talker a bit too much credit, but the publicity he got last night from cable television was priceless.

Young Voters: No age group has been more ridiculed for their lack of participation than those under 30. But in Indiana that age group comprised 16 percent of the overall vote while those 65 or older comprised 15 percent. Under 30s went for Obama 61 percent to 39 percent, a margin that all but neutralized Clinton's 44 percent margin among older Hoosiers.

Gary, Indiana: Not since the Jackson Five or perhaps "The Music Man" has this northwestern Indiana city got so much national attention. For a few hours last night, the Mayor of Gary was the biggest "get" in the world of cable television and print reporting.

The Picket Fence Play: Were we the only ones who, in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, started making comparisons between Obama's Lake County comeback and the play Dennis Hopper drew up to win the championship game for Hickory High in "Hoosiers"?

LOSERS

Evan Bayh: The Indiana senator put his own political chops on the line in the two weeks between Pennsylvania and Tuesday night's vote - serving as an aggressive voice for Clinton (and against Obama) in the hurly burly leading up to the primary. Despite reports from both campaigns about Bayh's popularity among state voters, he simply wasn't able to deliver his candidate the sort of victory she needed to claim momentum going forward.

Mike Easley: The North Carolina governor's decision to endorse Clinton was seen as a potential turning point in the race. Or not. Obama hammered Clinton in the Tarheel State, and Easley, who will be looking for a job when his second term expires later this year, did himself no favors in positioning for a possible Obama cabinet. (On a more positive note, Easley's heir apparent - Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue - claimed a solid win in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.)

The Wright Controversy: Exit polling in Indiana and North Carolina suggests that the comments made by Rev. Jeremiah Wright last week weren't the anchor around Obama's ankle that many believed they would be. About a third of voters in both states said Wright was "very important" in deciding their vote, and those blocs went strongly for Clinton. About a third of voters said Wright was "not at all important" in their choice of candidate, and they opted for Obama by even wider margins. What do all those number say? That if you came into the Wright controversy favoring Clinton, you came out of it thinking the same thing. And if you were an Obama supporter before the Wright reemergence, you remained one afterwards. Put simply - much ado over not all that much.