Pawlenty on the Republican Party

Tim Pawlenty on the tough road ahead for the Republican party:

"We cannot be a majority governing party when we essentially cannot compete in the Northeast, we are losing our ability to compete in Great Lakes States, we cannot compete on the West Coast, we are increasingly in danger of competing in the Mid-Atlantic States, and the Democrats are now winning some of the Western States. "That is not a formula for being a majority governing party in this nation."

"And similarly we cannot compete, and prevail, as a majority governing party if we have a significant deficit, as we do, with women, where we have a large deficit with Hispanics, where we have a large deficit with African-American voters, where we have a large deficit with people of modest incomes and modest financial circumstances. Those are not factors that make up a formula for success going forward."

Kos asks the relevant question: " What can they do about it? Really, not much. The GOP is out of step with a public that is increasingly libertarian on social matters, yet their religious wing won't let them shift on those issues."

Veepstakes Cont.

Today’s Fix ranks the prospective vice presidential candidates. As Chris Cillizza points out, the choice for Obama is between “change and experience” - does he opt for someone who reinforces his fresh approach or does he opt for someone well-known who can bring experience to the ticket? For McCain, the choice is between “throwing a short pass or a Hail Mary" – does he opt for the safe pick in someone personally close to him or does he opt for someone unexpected and unorthodox who could shake up the race? The updated rankings:

The Republicans

5. Bobby Jindal: The chatter surrounding the Louisiana governor has died down significantly of late but we still believe that if McCain decides on making a true surprise pick, Jindal's the guy. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Mitt Romney: On the one hand, Romney seems to make the most sense for McCain -- shoring up the ticket's economic bona fides and helping the nominee in Michigan and New Hampshire. On the other, McCain is a total "gut" politician and, if he trusts his instincts, he's not likely to pick someone with whom he is not close personally. (Previous ranking: 1)

3. Joe Lieberman: Believe it -- the Connecticut Democrat-cum-Independent is very much in the mix for McCain. Why? Lieberman has long been supportive of McCain's position on the war in Iraq and the two men like each other immensely. Plus, picking Lieberman could be spun by pro-McCain forces as yet another example of his commitment to bipartisanship. (Previous ranking: N/A)

2. Tom Ridge: The former Pennsylvania governor is the hottest name in the Republican veepstakes - due in large part to McCain's repeated praise of him and the growing sense that the Arizona Senator is seriously considering a pro-choice pick. Ridge would almost certainly put Pennsylvania more squarely in play and would also allow McCain to double down on the national security message in the general election. (Previous ranking: N/A)

1. Tim Pawlenty: Tpaw returns to the top of the Line thanks to the fact that out of all true "Final Four" lists he checks the most boxes. He is pro-life, has been elected twice as governor in a swing Midwestern state and has a personal friendship with McCain. Is it enough? (Previous ranking: 2)

The Democrats

5. Kathleen Sebelius: There's no question that of the names on this list, Obama feels closest to Sebelius and Tim Kaine. But, is a close personal relationship enough? Sebelius' star has faltered somewhat as some within Democratic circles have come to believe the Kansas governor is not ready for such a big stage. And, can Obama really choose a woman not named Clinton as his vice president? (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Jack Reed: Perhaps the least buzzed about serious vice presidential candidate in history, the Rhode Island senator remains a real option. And, if security is the central theme of the convention, Reed could be a perfect fit: his resume includes a stint in the U.S. Army and service on the Senate Armed Services Committee. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Tim Kaine: In naming former Virginia governor Mark Warner as the convention keynote speaker earlier this week, the Obama campaign either a) closed the door on Kaine as veep or b) opened the door for a Virginia-centric convention designed to highlight the importance of that swing state. We tend to believe option "a" though the Virginia governor's early support for Obama should not be underplayed as a factor in the final decision. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Evan Bayh: To the extent there was buzz around Bayh - those words don't usually end up in the same sentence together - it has died down over the last week. Some in the party - especially those on the liberal left - believe picking Bayh would be a sell-out of the principles that won Obama the nomination. The Indiana senator and former governor remains very much in the running, however, thanks to his Midwestern roots, his executive experience and his youth. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Joe Biden: Biden is peaking at the right time. Barely mentioned at the start of the veepstakes, he is now the favorite to be the pick. Biden's deep foreign policy resume, charisma, blue-collar appeal and debate skills all recommend him. And, the normally loquacious Biden has been stone silent over the last few weeks -- stoking speculation that he is the one. (Previous ranking: 3)

Pawlenty: The Good and Bad

As John McCain looks to potential Vice Presidential picks, the Fix makes the case for and against Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

No potential vice presidential pick - with the exception of Hillary Rodham Clinton - has received as much attention over the last few months as Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty is widely assumed to be favorite pick of presumptive GOP nominee John McCain and has held down the top spot in The Fix's Veepstakes Line since we began ranking the potential choices. It is only likely to get worse (or, if you're Pawlenty, better) over the next 24 hours as McCain's trip to Minnesota is sure to stoke the rumor mill. While conventional wisdom seems to have hardened around the "Pawlenty as frontrunner" meme, the truth of the matter is that few in the chattering class have any real sense of the man - where he comes from, what he stands for and why he has vaulted into such an exalted position in the Veepstakes.

The Case for Tim Pawlenty:

Up From His Bootstraps: In a party long seen as controlled by affluent elites, Pawlenty's decidedly blue collar background puts an entirely different face on what it means to be a Republican. Pawlenty grew up in the working class environs of South St. Paul. He was a teenager when he lost his mother. His father was a truck driver. He was the first member of his family to graduate from college. He still plays ice hockey whenever he can. He caught a 17" walleye on opening day of fishing season this spring. His most oft-quoted line by the national press is his vow to make the GOP the party of "Sam's Club not just the country club."

The Good Soldier: Pawlenty is nothing if not loyal to his party. In 1998, Pawlenty was running for governor but stepped aside in favor of then-St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R) who was regarded as the party's best chance of taking back the post. Three years later, Pawlenty was actively weighing a race against Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) when Vice President Dick Cheney and White House political Svengali Karl Rove called to urge him to step aside in favor of - you guessed it - Coleman. He did, and decided instead to run for governor - a three-way race he won by eight points. (Pawlenty was reelected by a far more narrow margin in 2006, besting Attorney General Mike Hatch 47 percent to 46 percent.) For some, Pawlenty's willingness to repeatedly step aside at the behest of the party powers-that-be could be taken as a sign of weakness -- a willingness to play second fiddle that runs counter to the sort of profile a national politician needs.

Bridging the Evangelical Gap: Pawlenty could well provide a solution to the gap between McCain and evangelical voters without alienating moderates and independents. (Huckabee would almost surely help McCain bridge the evangelical gap too but lacks the appeal to the ideological middle.) Vin Weber, a former Republican member of Congress from Minnesota and now a major player in Washington GOP politics, explains that while Pawlenty has close ties to the evangelical community in his state and nationally but is "not a guy who wears [religion] on his sleeve."

Free of the Taint: Voters feel passionately that Washington is broken and new faces are needed to fix it… Pawlenty certainly fits this description, having spent his entire political career in his home state.Pawlenty also has demonstrated during his time as governor a penchant for the sort of hands-on, nitty gritty approach to solving problems that tends to resonate with average voters. An example: Pawlenty not only declared a state of emergency in a handful of southeastern Minnesota counties ravaged by recent floods but quickly toured the areas to see the damage first hand. Voters like doers, not talkers. And judging from his reaction to the recent flooding as well as the 2007 collapse of the I-35 bridge, Pawlenty intuitively understands that the best way to handle crises is to put yourself in the middle of them.

The Case Against Tim Pawlenty:

Tim Who?: Pawlenty is virtually unknown on the national stage despite being in his second term as governor of a swing state. He has done little to raise his profile nationally since coming into office - although he has been seeking to remedy that of late by traveling the country in support of Republican downballot candidates.

Political Operation Incognito: For a guy who has spent six years in the governor's office and was a leader in the state House before winning that post in 2002, Pawlenty has an almost non-existent political operation either in the state or nationally. Even allies describe Pawlenty as generally apolitical and not someone who has spent much time building a national network of donors or hiring on national operatives to position him for a run at the ticket.

A Man Without an (Ideological) Home: In our case for Pawlenty yesterday, we noted that he has stronger ties to the evangelical community than many people assume. But, he is not generally regarded by social conservatives as "one of them." ...Even so, Pawlenty may well be a man without a country when it comes to the veepstakes. He is unlikely to be pushed to McCain's advisers by either social or fiscal conservatives - the two broadest and most powerful elements within the party. That also means that if Pawlenty is picked by McCain, he will make neither of those constituent groups happy.

Veepstakes Continued...

The Fix weighs in on the ongoing veepstakes discussion…

Ask someone who works for either Barack Obama (Ill.) or John McCain (Ariz.) about the search for a vice presidential nominee and, to a person, the response you get goes something like this: "It's way too early to even be thinking about specific names.” Bring up potential VP's with people outside the direct orbit of the campaigns, however, and you get a panoply of names, discussions of running mate strategy, and handicapping of strengths and weaknesses. Welcome to the veepstakes -- where those who know the most are saying the least and, unfortunately, vice versa.

The Fix, as always, navigates these tricky waters for the good of our readers. Conversations with a variety of operatives who are in a position to have a general sense of the veepstakes have produced the lists you will find below. When it comes to picking a vice presidential candidate, we acknowledge it is something of a moving target -- so if your preferred guy (or gal) didn't make the list never fear, they could show up next time. Also, since McCain and Obama appear to have the nominations locked up, we are, for the first time, ranking the five most likely veep picks. The number one slot on the Line is the candidate with the best chance -- right now -- of being picked.

REPUBLICANS

5. Mitt Romney: A few months ago it would have seemed crazy to include Romney on a vice presidential list for McCain because it was an open secret that the two men didn't like each another. But politics is a funny game and Romney is charting out an aggressive fundraising schedule for McCain over the coming months. Still, the two men seem like oil and water and it's hard to imagine McCain picking someone with whom he is not comfortable.

4. Charlie Crist: No single politician had more to do with McCain becoming his party's standard bearer than the governor of Florida. Crist's endorsement of the Arizona senator just before the Sunshine State primary put McCain over the top and cemented his grip on the nomination. Crist's popularity in the Sunshine State also carries potential general election benefits for McCain. But, if polling is to be believed, McCain may have an easier time there if Obama is the nominee. Crist is also regarded with some level of suspicion by conservatives in the party; a problem McCain doesn't need given his past tenuous relations with that wing of the GOP.

3. Rob Portman: Not including Portman in previous lists was a major oversight on our part. Anyone who knows anything about McCain's thinking seems to believe Portman, who spent twelve years in Congress before doing several stints in the Bush White House, will be one of the finalists for the job. Why? Portman hails from Ohio -- perhaps the swingiest of swing states this fall -- and he is a widely touted economics expert, a specialty that could protect McCain from attacks on his familiarity with the issue. Portman is not a well-known name nationally but that could wind up being a good thing, ensuring a honeymoon period as he is introduced to voters.

2. John Thune: The phrase "central casting" can easily be applied to the senator from South Dakota. Thune is handsome, articulate and comes across as a moderate despite his very clear conservative voting record. Thune is also a hero in conservative circles thanks to his defeat of then Sen. Tom Daschle (S.D.) in 2004. The one knock on Thune is that he hails from a state that is already well in hand for Republicans. But, a look at recent veep picks (John Edwards, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman) shows that the traditional "geographic" consideration may be fading in importance when it comes to picking a number two.

1. Tim Pawlenty: So Tpaw and McCain had something of a disagreement over the cause of last year's bridge collapse in Minnesota. The Minnesota governor remains the candidate in the Republican vice presidential field who fits best with what McCain wants and needs in a VP. Pawlenty has been elected twice in a Democratic-leaning state that is almost certain to be a battleground in the fall. He is liked and respected by both conservatives and moderates and gets rave reviews for his political instincts. He has also known McCain for nearly three decades and has been a supporter since the early days of the contest.

DEMOCRATS

5. Sam Nunn: It's hard to argue with Nunn's place as one of the pre-eminent Democratic thinkers on foreign policy and defense issues. He spent more than two decades in the Senate representing Georgia and he chaired the Armed Services Committee. That resume coupled with Nunn's status as a white southerner could well make him an appealing pick for Obama. But, is Nunn too moderate (some would say conservative) for the party's liberal base to swallow?

4. Tim Kaine: Kaine's great strengths in this process are who he is and where's he from. A former missionary and a man who openly talks about his faith, Kaine could help Obama bridge the "God gap" that has emerged in recent presidential elections. He is also the highest ranking elected official in an emerging battleground state and his popularity coupled with Obama's appeal to African American voters statewide and white voters in northern Virginia could make the contest for the Commonwealth a barnburner. Kaine's problem is that he has spent just three years as governor (and four years as lieutenant governor before that) and has almost no foreign policy experience.

3. Hillary Clinton: In the wake of Clinton's speech in Indianapolis on Tuesday night, many within the party thought she was opening the door to the idea of sharing the ticket with Obama. Her rhetoric over the past 48 hours, however, particularly her comments about "white voters," may well quash the "Dream Ticket" talk before it begins in earnest. While Clinton has broad and deep support within the Democratic Party, picking her as vice president would seem to run counter to Obama's change message. That said, stranger things have most definitely happened.

2. Ted Strickland: While Obama may not feel compelled to name Clinton to the ticket, he is well aware of the need to offer an olive branch of sorts to the backers of the New York Senator. Strickland, the first term governor of Ohio, may well fit the bill. Not only is he an active and high profile Clinton supporter, he is also the popular chief executive of a state that Obama must find a way to win if he hopes to be president. Strickland, who represented a conservative southern Ohio congressional district before winning the governorship in 2006, could also help Obama deal with lingering doubts about his candidacy among white working class voters.

1. Kathleen Sebelius: The second-term Kansas governor earns the top spot on the Line because of her ability to further bolster Obama's strengths while not exacerbating his weaknesses. Picking Sebelius would affirm Obama's core message of change and would give Obama's run even more historic weight. Sebelius' electoral success in ruby red Kansas would also echo Obama's pledge to broaden the playing field in the fall and ensure that the party is competitive in every state. The one knock on Sebelius is the dearth of foreign policy credentials on her resume. But she has six years of strong executive experience and could be the kind of political partner Obama needs in the fall.

Veepstakes Continued...

The Financial Times provides an interesting run-down of potential running-mates for John McCain and the positives and negatives for each.

Charlie Crist, 51: (+) Popular first term Florida governor; Credited with helping McCain win the Florida primary and would probably deliver the Sunshine State again in November if chosen as VP. (-) Too moderate for many conservatives; At 51, his bachelor lifestyle is a source of intrigue – rumour mongers cannot decide whether he is a playboy or gay.

Mark Sanford, 47: (+) Second-term governor of South Carolina; Crusader against government waste – once brought live pigs into the state legislature to protest against “pork-barrel” spending. (-) Did not endorse McCain (or any other candidate) before the South Carolina primary.

Tim Pawlenty, 47: (+) Second-term governor of Minnesota – a key Republican target state; One of McCain’s staunchest supporters and a conservative rising star. (-) Failed to deliver his home state for McCain in the Republican primary.

Haley Barbour, 60: (+) Second-term governor of Mississippi; Competent and well-connected operator; One of the few people to win praise for their leadership after Hurricane Katrina. (-) His background as a powerful Washington lobbyist clashes with McCain’s image as a crusader against special interests.

Matt Blunt, 37: (+) Young first-term governor of Missouri -- traditionally an important bellweather state in presidential elections; Won the highest rating of any governor from the libertarian Cato Institute for reducing state spending; Recently announced he would not seek a second term, making him available for the VP job. (-) Backed Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination; His youth could raise doubts about his readiness to be Commander-in-Chief and undermine Republican attacks against Barack Obama for his inexperience.

Bobby Jindal, 36: (+) Corruption-busting governor of Louisiana and Republican rising star; His youth and Indian-American ethnicity would help neutralise the appeal of Barack Obama. (-) Less than two months into his first term – it would surely be too soon for him to quit.

Sarah Palin, 44: (+) First term governor of Alaska, with an approval rating above 80 per cent; Solid conservative; Considered the brightest female prospect in the Republican party; Mother of four and wife of a commercial fisherman, giving her populist appeal. (-) Relatively inexperienced; Comes from a politically peripheral state.

Rick Perry, 58: (+) Governor of Texas since George W. Bush stepped down in 2000; Would be a popular choice among ”red state” conservatives. (-) Is America ready for another Texas governor on a presidential ticket?

Condoleezza Rice, 53, and Colin Powell, 70: (+) Secretary of State and former Secretary of State, respectively; Would add to McCain’s foreign policy credentials and bring racial diversity to the Republican ticket. (-) Too deeply associated with the failures of the Bush administration; Both say they don’t want the job; Powell is only a year younger than McCain.

Rob Portman, 52: (+) Former US Trade Representative and White House economic adviser; Would bring economic clout to the ticket and could be an asset in his native Ohio – a crucial swing state. (-) Little known outside economic circles. Closely tied to the Bush administration.

Christopher Cox, 55: (+) Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and a former congressman and editor of the Harvard Law Review; Would bring economic and financial experience. (-) Lacks star power.

Joseph Lieberman, 66: (+) Independent senator for Connecticut and running mate to Al Gore on the 2000 Democratic ticket; Quit the Democrats because of his support for the war in Iraq; Would strengthen McCain’s appeal among independents and moderate Democrats. (-) Liberal views would alienate conservatives.

Mike Huckabee, 52: (+) Presidential candidate and former Arkansas governor; Popular among evangelical Christians and widely admired for his good-humoured approach to campaigning; Refrained from attacking McCain. (-) Socially conservative views could alienate moderates, while his populist rhetoric alarms economic conservatives.

Mitt Romney, 60: (+) Former presidential candidate, business executive and Massachusetts governor; Emerged as McCain’s fiercest opponent; Would provide executive experience and economic knowledge. (-) Hostile relationship with McCain could be difficult to overcome.

Rudy Giuliani, 63: (+) Former presidential hopeful; Highly-respected for his leadership as New York mayor after the 9/11 attacks. (-) Could overshadow McCain; Too socially liberal for conservatives; Volatile private life.

Michael Bloomberg, 66: (+) Widely respected mayor of New York, philanthropist and billionaire owner of the Bloomberg news organisation; Recently ruled himself out as a third-party candidate; Would bring executive experience, economic clout and bipartisan appeal. (-) Quit the Republican party last year to become an independent; Too moderate and metropolitan for many Conservatives.

Steve Forbes, 60: (+) Member of the Forbes publishing dynasty and twice a Republican presidential contender in 1986 and 2000; Campaigner for lower taxes and small government. (-) Anti-tax views may be too extreme for some; Out of frontline politics for years.

John Thune, 47, Richard Burr, 52: (+) Young and solidly conservative senators for South Dakota and North Carolina, respectively. Frequently named among the Republican party’s brightest rising stars. (-) Conventional wisdom suggests it would be unwise for McCain, a longtime senator, to add another lawmaker to the ticket, given the unpopularity of Congress. The same reasoning could rule out several other senators that have been linked with the job, including Jim DeMint and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Sam Brownback of Kansas and Kay Bailey-Hutchinson of Texas.

Veepstakes

In today's Fix, Chris Cillizza provides an interesting run-down of potential nominees for vice-president.

BARACK OBAMA

* John Edwards: The former North Carolina senator's endorsement remains the biggest "get" in the ongoing battle between Obama and Clinton. On one level, he seems like a natural fit as Obama's No. 2; the two were passionate voices for change in the race and both put a refusal to accept money from special interests at the core of their campaigns. Edwards is also still a relatively young man and would help Obama make a generational argument against McCain. Why wouldn't Edwards be the pick? His six years in the Senate don't help Obama address voter concerns about experience.

* Tim Kaine: Kaine, the governor of Virginia, has long been The Fix's dark horse pick to be Obama's running mate. Not only was he among the first major elected officials to back Obama, he hails from a potential swing state. Also, Kaine's deep faith (and willingness to speak about it on the campaign trail) could help the party's outreach to moderate and independent voters. Like Edwards, Kaine has very limited experience in foreign affairs, however.

* Kathleen Sebelius: Sebelius is the hot name right now among Democratic insiders buzzing about an Obama pick. Sebelius is currently in her second term as the governor of Kansas - one of the most Republican states in the country. While the idea of the Democratic ticket carrying Kansas is somewhat far fetched (Lyndon Johnson was the last Democrat to do so way back in 1964), picking Sebelius would add to the historic nature of the Democratic ticket and draw huge amounts of media attention. Plus, Sebelius may have an intangible going for her: Obama's mother is a native Kansan.

* Jim Webb: Webb is a beloved figure among the liberal left who all but drafted him into his 2006 upset victory over Sen. George Allen (R). And he has the military credential few can match as a decorated Marine during Vietnam. His biggest asset and potential liability seems to lie in his unorthodox approach to politics. Webb is blunt to the point of awkwardness. Voters often love it, but such straight shooting may not make an ideal veep pick.

* Tony Zinni: Zinni is not only a high ranking military officer(he served as a Marine for nearly four decades and was the head of U.S. Central Command), but he also is a longtime opponent of the war in Iraq. His foreign policy chops are tough to question and his opposition to the war jibes nicely with Obama's own position. Given the likelihood of McCain as the Republican nominee, Obama might well opt for Zinni (or some other military man) to blunt charges that he is naive when it comes to foreign policy and national security.

JOHN McCAIN

* Charlie Crist: Less than two years after winning election as the governor of Florida, Crist is already being talked up in Republican circles as a potential VP. (The St. Petersburg Times even has a Charlie Crist veep-o-meter measuring his chances. In retrospect, McCain's win in Florida was the tipping point in his bid for the nomination, and that victory was fueled in no small part by a last-minute endorsement from Crist. One strike against Crist is that he isn't regarded by movement conservatives as one of them.

* Jon Huntsman Jr.: Huntsman, the governor of Utah, is the dark horse pick of this list. His original endorsement was seen a major coup for McCain - Huntsman is Mormon, thus his support was seen as a slap at Mitt Romney. Huntsman also has significant chops among the Reagan/Bush crowd; he served in both Bush administrations and was a staff assistant in the Reagan White House in the early 1980s. Did we mention he is the son of the wealthiest man in Utah?

* Tim Pawlenty: The two-term Minnesota governor has to be considered the frontrunner at the moment to be McCain's pick. He hails from the electorally important Midwest, is young enough to balance concerns about McCain's age, and he stuck by the Arizona senator in the darkest days of the campaign. The criticism that Pawlenty is an unknown on the national stage may, in fact, be an argument in his favor - voters won't bring any preconceived notions about him to the ticket. Never forget that one of the guiding principles in picking a VP is to find someone who is comfortable being seen but not heard. Want more about the man they call "Tpaw"?

* Mark Sanford: If Tpaw is the top choice these days, Sanford isn't far behind. Term-limited out of office in 2010, Sanford is young (47) and the rare Republican who can bridge the chasm between social and economic conservatives. Sanford was an early endorser of McCain during the latter's 2000 presidential candidacy and, even though he stayed neutral this year, retains a good relationship with McCain. Fiscal conservatives -- led by the Club For Growth -- LOVE Sanford and have already begun lobbying on his behalf.

* John Thune: A rising star in the party, Thune is a hero to conservatives for defeating Sen. Tom Daschle (S.D.) in 2004. He also hails from the Plains -- a potentially competitive area with Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota and Wisconsin up for grabs. Thune, like Sanford and Pawlenty, is in his 40s, helping McCain offset
any concerns about his age.